Lightning: The Hidden Danger

When I travel, I go by car if at all possible. This isn't because I'm afraid of flying – I admit to being uneasy about it, but I also know that, statistically, it's not horribly dangerous. I don't like flying because it's a miserable experience, you can't bring anything you want, you don't see anything on the way, and a variety of other reasons.

Now, with the Christmas bombing attempt on a commercial airliner, people are afraid of going out in a terrorist attack on an airplane. Nate Silver, master of statistics, ran the numbers and found:

Therefore, the odds of being on given departure which is the subject of a terrorist incident have been 1 in 10,408,947 over the past decade. By contrast, the odds of being struck by lightning in a given year are about 1 in 500,000. This means that you could board 20 flights per year and still be less likely to be the subject of an attempted terrorist attack than to be struck by lightning.

So relax, you're more likely to be struck by lightning than to be in a terrorist attack on an airplane!

Wait – really? Yes. Did you know that you're more likely to be struck by lightning than killed by a tornado or a hurricane? You're more likely to be struck by lightning than killed in an amusement park ride accident, or an accidental plane crash. Your child is more likely to be struck by lightning than abducted by a stranger.

Wow, this lightning stuff is dangerous. Aren't we worrying about the wrong thing here?

You're more likely to be killed by lightning than a falling coconut (falling coconuts only kill some 150 people per year), a shark attack, a dog, a meteorite, or, I think, any kind of terrorist attack at all.

The National Weather Service actually has a lightning safety website, and even a slogan: “When thunder roars, go indoors!” Who knew? Why is this danger being kept from us? What are they hiding? Some facts:

• Virtually all victims of the lightning menace are outdoors at the time of the strike. Stay inside.
• If you're close enough to hear thunder you are within the lightning's striking distance. Run away!
• 70% of lightning injuries and deaths occur in the afternoon. Sleep really late.
• Florida has more lightning strikes than any other US state. Don't go there.
• The Democratic Republic of Congo has more lightning strikes than any other country. You probably weren't going there anyway.
• Being under a tree is the second most frequent activity during which to be struck by lightning. Trees: bad. Chop 'em down.
• Lightning often strikes in the same place twice. Don't listen to your mom.

So, don't worry about someone bombing your airplane. You've got far more serious threats to worry about!